Neuralink

July 17, 2019 • #

Yesterday was Neuralink’s unveiling of what they’ve been working on. Their team of engineers, neurosurgeons, and computer science experts are working on a “neural lace” brain-computer interface.

Elon Musk announced the launch of a company to work on this problem back in 2016. Seeing this amount of progress, it’s clear now that the science fiction story of a cybernetic implant looks like a possible near future reality. The idea itself conjures images of Neuromancer’s console cowboys and Effinger’s “moddies”, neural augmentations that enable things like plugging into the matrix and personality modification.

The near-term intent that Neuralink is after is to use the lace as an assistive technology for those with motor impairments and other medical conditions. But there are moonshot goals to “increase the bandwidth” between computers and the human mind.

The whole idea gives new meaning to the famous Steve Jobs quote:

What a computer is to me is the most remarkable tool that we’ve ever come up with, and it’s the equivalent of a bicycle for our minds.

If Neuralink is successful, instead of being limited by the bandwidth of the inputs — keyboard, mouse, touchscreen — and outputs — pixels and sound waves — we’ll have a two-way massive digital pipeline in between. A supersonic jet for the mind.

Places: Mergui Archipelago

July 16, 2019 • #

On this edition of Places is the Mergui Archipelago, a string of coastal islands off of southern Myanmar in the Andaman Sea.

Mergui Archipelago

I saw this image a few years back on NASA’s Earth Observatory feed. It’s an amazing snapshot from Landsat 5 that shows gorgeous colors from the silts and sediments emptied at the mouth of the Lenya River. The tidal motions make the colored sea water smear across the image like an oil painting. I also love the dendritic patterns of the streams and tributaries on the islands. They give a sense of scale to the archipelago (it’s a lot longer north to south than what the image shows).

Also found this interesting piece of trivia from Wikipedia:

In the 1965 James Bond film Thunderball, Ernst Stavro Blofeld demands that NATO pay the international criminal organization SPECTRE a ransom of white flawless diamonds worth £100 million to be deposited in the Mergui Archipelago off the coast of Myanmar.

One of my favorite Bond films!

Mergui Archipelago :: 12°00' N, 98°00' E

Tour de France

July 15, 2019 • #

The Tour de France is on right now, reaching the first rest day after a wild first 10 stages of racing. Julian Alaphilippe (a Frenchman) is in the yellow jersey, who’s one of the great opportunists in the field, with a win at Milan-San Remo earlier this year.

The Tour is one of my favorite sporting events of the year. I’ve gotten familiar enough with the UCI Tour over the last 5 or 6 years that I enjoy all of the flavors of races — the big grand tours, the classics, and the world championship events.

But one of the main reasons it’s a special event for me is the sentimental nature of what’s gone on in my life in past years during the Tour: Elyse was born during the 2015 race, and I had my diagnosis and surgery during the 2017 event. One was a very positive experience, sitting home each day on leave holding the baby and watching the stages, and the second of course not so positive, but watching each day gave me something to hold my attention and follow to keep my mind occupied during that rough patch on the road to recovery.

In the past two years the Tour brings those times back to me. It is “just” a sporting event, but it’s a sentimental one, for me.

Yesterday’s stage 10 into Albi was suspected to be a relaxed flat day leading into the rest day, but it was anything but. Crosswinds, some complacent GC riders in the back of the peloton, and some well-timed attacks in the last 25km created a split in the field and a chaotic blitz for the line. The climb of La Planche des Belles Filles on stage 6 and De Gendt’s breakaway win on stage 8 were also incredible to watch. A great way to kickoff week 1 with a competitive race in the GC standings.

Elyse 4.0

July 14, 2019 • #

Elyse just had her 4th birthday this weekend!

Elyse on her 4th birthday

She picked out her own theme, her own cake, and wanted to have her party at Jump Station here in town. Tons of her friends and family came out, so it was great to see everyone and always fun to see her living it up with all of her friends.

Everett also had a blast there running all over the place climbing, jumping, and sliding with the older kids.

When we got home she had a big time opening all of her gifts — been playing with them all non-stop since. We also took a nice bike ride together down to the park and back, which she always loves, contrary to this video where she’s complaining about tired legs:

Weekend Reading: Atlas of Moons, Opendoor and Redfin, and Thinking While Walking

July 13, 2019 • #

🌕 The Atlas of Moons

This is an absolutely phenomenal project showcasing each of the major satellites in the Solar System. The full interactive maps of each one are incredible. It shows how much data we’ve gathered about all of these bodies with imagery on each one and thoroughly mapped with place and feature names.

🏠 Opendoor and Redfin Partner

A cool piece of news here. We bought our house with Redfin and had a great experience with it, after using the website heavily during the house search process. Opendoor is also in the real estate space, but their core business is around buying up properties themselves, offering easy liquidity to homeowners needing a rapid sale. I like that Redfin sees the potential there. Hopefully it’s a good fit for each business.

🚶🏻‍♂️ Study Finds Walking Improves Creativity

The study found that walking indoors or outdoors similarly boosted creative inspiration. The act of walking itself, and not the environment, was the main factor. Across the board, creativity levels were consistently and significantly higher for those walking compared to those sitting.

I definitely feel like many of my best ideas and possible problem solutions come to me while running. This research shows that the act of cardiovascular activity spurs something creatively that you don’t have while sitting.

On Retention

July 12, 2019 • #

Earlier this year at SaaStr Annual, we spent 3 days with 20,000 people in the SaaS market, hearing about best practices from the best in the business, from all over the world.

If I had to take away a single overarching theme this year (not by any means “new” this time around, but louder and present in more of the sessions), it’s the value of customer success and retention of core, high-value customers. It’s always been one of SaaStr founder Jason Lemkin’s core focus areas in his literature about how to “get to $10M, $50M, $100M” in revenue, and interwoven in many sessions were topics and questions relevant to things in this area — onboarding, “aha moments,” retention, growth, community development, and continued incremental product value increases through enhancement and new features.

Mark Roberge (former CRO of Hubspot) had an interesting talk that covered this topic. In it he focused on the power of retention and how to think about it tactically at different stages in the revenue growth cycle.

If you look at growth (adding new revenue) and retention (keeping and/or growing existing revenue) as two axes on a chart of overall growth, a couple of broad options present themselves to get the curve arrow up and to the right:

Retention vs. growth

If you have awesome retention, you have to figure out adding new business. If you’re adding new customers like crazy but have trouble with customer churn, you have to figure out how to keep them. Roberge summed up his position after years of working with companies:

It’s easier to accelerate growth with world class retention than fix retention while maintaining rapid growth.

The literature across industries is also in agreement on this. There’s an adage in business that it’s “cheaper to keep a customer than to acquire a new one.” But to me there’s more to this notion than the avoidance of the acquisition cost for a new customer, though that’s certainly beneficial. Rather it’s the maximization of the magic SaaS metric: LTV (lifetime value). If subscription customer never leaves, their revenue keeps growing ad infinitum. This is the sort of efficiency ever SaaS company is striving for — to maximize fixed investments over the long term. It’s why investors are valuing SaaS businesses at 10x revenue these days. But you can’t get there without unlocking the right product-market fit to switch on this kind of retention and growth.

So Roberge recommends keying in on this factor. One of the key first steps in establishing a strong position with any customer is to have a clear definition of when they cross a product fit threshold — when they reach the “aha” moment and see the value for themselves. He calls this the “customer success leading indicator”, and explains that all companies should develop a metric or set of metrics that indicates when customers cross this mark. Some examples from around the SaaS universe of how companies are measuring this:

  • Slack — 2000 team messages sent
  • Dropbox — 1 file added to 1 folder on 1 device
  • Hubspot — Using 5 of 20 features within 60 days

Each of these companies has correlated these figures with strong customer fits. When these targets are hit, there’s a high likelihood that a customer will convert, stick around, and even expand. It’s important that the selected indicator be clear and consistent between customers and meet some core criteria:

  • Observable in weeks or months, not quarters or years — need to see rapid feedback on performance.
  • Measurement can be automated — again, need to see this performance on a rolling basis.
  • Ideally correlated to the product core value proposition — don’t pick things that are “measurable” but don’t line up with our expectations of “proper use.” For example, in Fulcrum, whether the customer creates an offline map layer wouldn’t correlate strongly with the core value proposition (in isolation).
  • Repeat purchase, referral, setup, usage, ROI are all common (revenue usually a mistake — it’s a lagging rather than a leading indicator)
  • Okay to combine multiple metrics — derived “aggregate” numbers would work, as long as they aren’t overcomplicated.

The next step is to understand what portion of new customers reach this target (ideally all customers reach it) and when, then measure by cohort group. Putting together cohort analyses allows you to chart the data over time, and make iterative changes to early onboarding, product features, training, and overall customer success strategy to turn the cohorts from “red” to “green”.

Retention cohorts

We do cohort tracking already, but it’d be hugely beneficial to analyze and articulate this through a filter of a key customer success metric is and track it as closely as MRR. I think a hybrid reporting mechanism that tracks MRR, customer success metric achievement, and NPS by cohort would show strong correlation between each. The customer success metric can serve as an early signal of customer “activation” and, therefore, future growth potential.

Customer success leading indicator

I also sat in on a session with Tom Tunguz, VC from RedPoint Ventures, who presented on a survey they had conducted with almost 600 different business SaaS companies across a diverse base of categories. The data demonstrated a number of interesting points, particularly on the topic of retention. Two of the categories touched on were logo retention and net dollar retention (NDR). More than a third of the companies surveyed retain 90+% of their logos year over year. My favorite piece of data showed that larger customers churn less — the higher products go up market, the better the retention gets. This might sound counterintuitive on the surface, but as Tunguz pointed out in his talk, it makes sense when you think about the buying process in large vs. small organizations. Larger customers are more likely to have more rigid, careful buying processes (as anyone doing enterprise sales is well aware) than small ones, which are more likely to buy things “on the fly” and also invest less time and energy in their vendors’ products. The investment poured in by an enterprise customer makes them averse to switching products once on board1:

Enterprise churn is lower

On the subject of NDR, Tunguz reports that the tendency toward expansion scales with company size, as well. In the body of customers surveyed, those that focus on the mid-market and enterprise tiers report higher average NDR than SMB. This aligns with the logic above on logo retention, but there’s also the added factor that enterprises have more room to go higher than those on the SMB end of the continuum. The higher overall headcount in an enterprise leaves a higher ceiling for a vendor to capture:

Enterprise expansion

Overall, there are two big takeaways to worth bringing home and incorporating:

  1. Create (and subsequently monitor) a universal “customer success indicator” that gives a barometer for measuring the “time to value” for new customers, and segment accordingly by size, industry, and other variables.
  2. Focus on large Enterprise organizations — particularly their use cases, friction points to expansion, and customer success attention.

We’ve made good headway a lot of these findings with our Enterprise product tier for Fulcrum, along with the sales and marketing processes to get it out there. What’s encouraging about these presentations is that we already see numbers leaning in this direction, aligning with the “best practices” each of these guys presented — strong logo retention and north of 100% NDR. We’ve got some other tactics in the pipeline, as well as product capabilities, that we’re hoping bring even greater efficiency, along with the requisite additional value to our customers.

  1. Assuming there’s tight product-market fit, and you aren’t selling them shelfware! 

iPadOS

July 10, 2019 • #

I normally avoid early upgrades to iOS betas, having been burned too many times in the past. But this time, the release of iPadOS is too exciting for me to avoid. Now that the public beta is available, I set it up and am already enjoying the changes. So far, the home screen app density and Today view up front is already a huge improvement for using the iPad for productivity, as expected. The Share Sheet changes are also pretty slick. Once I spend more time with it I’ll probably post some more thoughts, but it’s looking good for further enabling those of us interested in getting work done on iPad.