Luck, Risk, and Avoiding Losers →March 6, 2019 • #
The latest episode of Shane Parrish’s Knowledge Project podcast is an interview with investor Howard Marks. There’s a ton here on how he thinks about opportunity and risk. I loved the sound beliefs on cycles — people commit excesses to the upside which have to be corrected, leading to overshooting to the downside. And the reason these things happen is because companies and customers, producers and consumers, are all people with emotions:
There’s no such thing as a market… All there is, is people. And people have feelings. And so the emotions tend to get people to buy, buy, buy at the top, until the last potential buyer has bought and spent all his money—at which point the top is reached and the second derivative goes negative—and sell, sell, sell at the bottom, until the last person who’s going to panic out does so.