Topic
logic
- A Failure, But Not of Prediction
This is the best piece I've seen on the swirling controversy around the coronavirus pandemic response: on experts, the WHO, government response. The problem is not that experts don't always have the answer (which they…
- 100 Little Ideas
Ideas, quips, and heuristics from Morgan Housel. Base-Rate Neglect: Assuming the success rate of everyone who’s done what you’re about to try doesn’t apply to you, caused by overestimating the extent to which you do t…